Farnam Street Blog, March 20, 2011
"Projections based solely on history lead to ruin. Projections seduce us into a false sense of security.We don't know what's behind them, what assumptions they make, and yet we take great comfort in the precision of the numbers they proffer.
The recent earthquake exceeded the engineering projections by a long shot. What was supposed to happen, once in a million years, took only eight. Yet nothing about the situation seems surprising. Earthquakes happen, especially in Japan.
When building the nuclear power plant in Japan, it would seem reasonable to assume : 1) Earthquakes happen: 2) they will continue to happen: 3) History has not witnessed the largest earthquake that will happen: 4) Earthquakes generate tsunami's 5) Tsunami's generated by large earthquakes are huge: and 6) the frequency of earthquakes will likely increase. Or, you know, just don't build nuclear power plants in seismically charged areas - I'm sure a reasonable person, without a presentation filled with statistics, would conclude that's just asking for trouble". To read more, Go to Farnam Street on the Sidebar>>>>
What do you think?
